I guess they have so much inventory that it's too difficult to keep track of each car. Unfortunately, Tesla doesn't list their inventory on their website in China. This could mean that US inventory was very high when they announced the $7,500 discount. Interestingly, the UK version of Tesla's website has a link to existing inventory as well as the configurator. Here is how the backlog has changed over time: Therefore, it's now obvious that the backlog is zero. It used to open the configurator until now. If you go to and on the top menu select any model you want and then click on the Buy Now button, it will open the inventory page. Tesla is now redirecting website visitors to the inventory pages instead of the configurator. Here is my inventory table based on the EV-CPO website: Ideally, inventory should drop to close to zero by Dec 31. If a location has -let's say- 8 versions of the same car, Tesla's inventory webpage will show 1 until all 8 are sold. The numbers you see here are small but Tesla doesn't show duplicate configurations for the same location. They get the data from Tesla's inventory pages. It's from a website created by a Tesla fan. Here is a chart that shows how Tesla's inventory has increased over time. The discount was $3,750 between 1-20 Dec and it's now $7,500 between 21-31 Dec. Tesla has increased the Model 3/Y discount in the US from $3,750 to $7,500. Summary: The order backlog is now zero in the US and in China. Google Sheet for this project: Tesla's Order Backlog & Delivery Wait Times We continue the weekly backlog updates in December instead of every two weeks. This is the main table where I make the calculations. This table shows the backlog for each trim level in each region. Tesla might announce that tomorrow.Ĭhina definitely needs another price cut too. I expect changes to trim levels in the US and many price adjustments.Įurope is starting to become a concern. We will have a better idea after 2 weeks into January. A lot of buyers were waiting for the tax credit. I don't expect the same to happen in the US. They slowed down production between 12-24 December and then paused it between 24-31 Dec. A shorter backlog, shown in red on the table, is not ideal because it could lead to slowing down or pausing production, as was the case in China. Here is a chart that shows backlog by region in 2-week intervals:īecause Tesla doesn't have a dealership network like most other car manufacturers, ideally, they want to maintain a 4 to 8 weeks backlog to manage fluctuations in demand without having to reduce production. As deliveries continue to increase, 8 days means more units. I estimate still 8 days at the end of Q4 (43,740 units). It was 8 days at the end of Q3 (36,432 units). It will include inventory in days of supply. Tesla is expected to release the shareholder letter for Q4 on January 2nd. So, I thought it would be a good idea to show you which one it is at a glance for each region.Ĭhina has unsold Model 3/Y inventory but they also have a small backlog because some buyers are waiting for Model S/X deliveries. Usually, there is either a backlog (buyers waiting for a car) or inventory (unsold cars waiting for buyers). Also, compared to a week ago, it's down from 85K on 22 Dec to 74K today. The global backlog is now down from 190K at the end of November to 74K at the end of December. Google Sheet for this project: Tesla's Order Backlog & Inventory Summary: As the backlog keeps dropping, we should expect price changes. There is a backlog update at the end of each month. : Because Q4 is over, this post is now public.
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